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Why volatility is not a prediction
"High" and "low" describe the shape of results. Neither describes what happens next.
What the label actually refers to
Volatility refers to how widely results are spread. A game labelled low volatility distributes its payouts so that smaller outcomes appear relatively often; a high-volatility game places larger multipliers more sparsely, with longer quiet stretches between them. This is why two titles with an identical RTP can carry opposite volatility labels — same total, different distribution.
So the label answers "how is it divided", not "how much is returned". Reading it on the same axis as RTP produces a conclusion neither figure supports.
The scales are not the same between studios
Even across the studios covered here, the scales differ. Play'n GO publishes both a word grade (LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH / VERY HIGH) and a 1–10 index. Hacksaw uses 1–5. Pragmatic shows words on its site and 1–5 elsewhere.
One studio's "high" is therefore not a measurement of the same thing as another's. Lining up two games from different studios by volatility grade alone is a weak comparison; reading the grade relative to that studio's own catalogue is much sounder.
Unpublished does not mean medium
Some studios publish no volatility figure at all. Booongo is one; Microgaming's live-dealer tables are another, where the hub lists no RTP, no volatility and no bet limits. Where a third-party site shows a value anyway, that value did not come from the studio.
This site leaves those fields marked as not listed and excludes them from comparison and search. Filling a blank with a mid-point or a textbook return makes the table look complete at the cost of it being true.
Randomness holds regardless of the grade
The common misreading is to treat the grade as a signal about progress — "it's high volatility, so something is due". There is nothing behind that sentence. Each round is generated independently of the ones before it, and the grade is a summary of the game's payout structure, not a description of the session in front of you.
There is one good use for the label: setting expectations about what the screen will do while you watch it. Past that point it becomes a forecast, and it is not a figure that can forecast anything.
Terms used here
- Volatility
- How widely results are spread; a summary of payout structure.
- Variance
- The statistical form of the same idea; used interchangeably in game material.
- Hit frequency
- The share of rounds that produce a payout. Rarely published.
- Independent trials
- The property that each round is unaffected by those before it.