Hit frequency: what it tells you and what it does not

A ratio, not a promise

Hit frequency is the share of spins that return a win over a very large number of spins. A figure of 25% means roughly one spin in four over the long run (an arithmetic illustration).

Like RTP, it is a long-run average. A ten- or twenty-spin session can hit far more often or go a long while without a win, and both are part of a normal spread. It says nothing about the next spin.

Most listings also do not say whether a “win” includes payouts smaller than the stake. Two games labelled 25% can feel very different depending on that definition.

Three studios publish it, on two different ranges

Of the ten studios in this catalogue, three publish a per-game hit frequency: NetEnt, Nolimit City and Play'n GO. NetEnt lists it for 224 of 230 titles, ranging from 6% to 87% with a median of 25%. Nolimit City lists it for all 138, from 8.29% to 40.47%, median about 24%.

Play'n GO lists it for 454 of 469 titles, but the range is 0.24% to 14.13%, median 3.19% — hard to square with the same definition the other two use. This site has not confirmed what event Play'n GO counts in that field, so its figures are compared only with other Play'n GO games, never side by side with another studio's hit frequency.

The other seven studios do not publish hit frequency. This site leaves that field empty and does not fill it from other games.

Why it does not stand in for volatility

“A game that hits often must be low volatility” sounds right, but the catalogue does not move that way. Play'n GO's median hit figure by volatility grade is 2.56% for low (14 titles), 3.19% for medium (225), 3.22% for high (181) and 3.04% for very high (34) — nearly flat.

Nolimit City shows the same. Split its 138 titles into thirds by volatility index and the lowest third has a median hit frequency of 24.72%, the highest third 24.59%.

Volatility describes how widely results spread; hit frequency describes how often anything lands. They are different axes and one cannot substitute for the other. Where a game publishes both, read them together; where it publishes one, say only as much as that one supports.

What to check in a demo

If the in-game info screen states a hit frequency, check first what it counts — any payout, or payouts at or above the stake. If it states nothing, do not try to measure the figure from a short demo: over a few dozen spins the error is larger than the value.

How a session felt is still worth noting. “Frequent small wins” or “a long quiet stretch” belong in a session report. They describe that session, not the game's hit frequency.